Recently, Bloomberg New Energy Finance published a report “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018”, in which there are forecasts for the spread of electric vehicles. Interesting part of the report is the forecast for the use by mankind of oil during the full victory of electric motors over internal combustion engines.
According to BNEF, electric vehicles need 15 years to become more affordable than cars with internal combustion engines. Thus by 2020, the electric buses will completely dominate public transport. Sales of electric cars in 2018 to exceed 1.6 million copies. In 2014 their sales in the hundreds of thousands.
So, we can observe significant growth of sales of electric vehicles, which is associated with reductions in production costs of batteries and state support. The third important factor was China. This country imposes restrictions on the purchase of petrol and diesel engines. It is expected that by 2025 half of the electric car market will be in China.
Increasing the number of proposed models from automakers. At the end of 2017 were offered 155 models. By 2022 it is expected 289 available models of electric vehicles. All this should lead to 11 million units sold by 2025, and 30 million by 2030 and 60 million by 2040. In total about 559 million electric vehicles will travel on the roads by 2040.
Of course, that this growth of the electric car market has had an impact on the use of oil in the future. In BNEF believe that by 2040 high oil prices will end, and its use will fall to 7.3 million barrels a day. The demand will be huge in 10 years, 20 years, but its destruction is inevitable.