Everything is new: why the next bullrun will not be like all the previous?

Throughout its history the stock market went through a huge number of UPS and downs. Recall that in 2009, Bitcoin was not worth absolutely nothing, for four years later for one coin gave as much as $ 150. After four years its price soared to 20 thousand dollars. Based on historical data, we assume that the price of BTC is moving in a similar market patterns.

By this logic, Bitcoin can grow up to 400 thousand dollars during the next global bullrun. Then again, cryptocurrency will drop by 85 percent. But is it possible just to compare market patterns one asset in a very different time periods?

Where will the Bitcoin price

First, now the stock market is very different from yourself sample 2013 or even 2015. In the first case, its market capitalization did not exceed a billion dollars in the second — three billion. The industry has grown, has become more visible and wider, so now it is a bit heavier than “rock” to new heights.

Second, the number of users of cryptocurrencies has grown significantly, and about Bitcoin now knows almost everyone. Do not have to understand the structure of the blockchain, but the average person has ever heard those three magic letters “BTC”.

Then why are many afraid to invest in the stock market? The whole point of volatility. No one can give you guarantee that in the next few years we will not see something like bearish trend 2018. However, still there is a certain correlation between the already known facts and the future price of BTC.

For example, the options market on Bitcoin. In November 2017 (then the price of BTC was almost at the same level as now) it was possible to buy an option for 10 thousand dollars for 2200 dollars. In other words, bitcoin should grow at least above 12 $ 200, the investor could obtain profit from a transaction. Then, analysts predicted a penetration resistance of ten thousand with a probability of 25 percent. Quite risky investment.

Now the situation is slightly different options you can buy for just $ 200. Experts predict growth above 10 thousand dollars, but even if bitcoin manages to overcome the barrier in the near future, it is unlikely to fall below $ 7,500. The investment is not risky.

Source: Bloomberg

Also do not forget about the correlation between the S&P 500 and the price of Bitcoin. As practice shows, the smaller the correlation between bitcoin and shares in the current quarter, the faster will be the growth of BTC in the next. So don’t forget to occasionally glance at the charts of traditional assets.

Source: Bloomberg

The following bullrun may not be the same as previous cycles of growth of Bitcoin, but it does not hurt you to capitalize on the growth of cryptocurrencies.

But only if you sign up for our cryptcat of hontarov, of course.


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