Be warned, the article is quite large. For those who don’t like mnogabukav, here’s a short rundown: AMD new generation probably not worth waiting until at least the end of 2019, and the new flagships and all can only come out in 2021.
Those who are interested in details, you are welcome in the main part of the text. What we have at the moment in the graphics market? We have the dominance of Nvidia in the upper price segment. And if not the cryptocurrency boom, and the average position of Nvidia would have been even stronger. If we talk about the tops, the cards Vega from AMD was controversial. Yes, they can technically compete with the older Nvidia models, not counting the GTX 1080 Ti, but guzzle a lot more energy and consequently stronger heated. Even for our market, given the continued rise in the cost of electricity, this is important, and for Western even more. I love AMD, but let’s face it: the generation of Pascal Nvidia came out much better, although in some aspects it still loses to Polaris/Vega.
But Nvidia will release a new 3D card. By the way, fresh rumors say that the GTX 1180 will cost $ 1,000. Given what I wrote in the beginning of the article, Nvidia could put all sorts of prices, as competition will not. But I hope that is still such a wild price tag will not.
So, soon Nvidia will release their new products, and what AMD? Recently, the company showed seminomatous Vega GPU 20, the parameters of which are not disclosed, but it is clearly largely identical GPU Vega 10, except that much smaller and more energy-efficient because a new process technology. But this GPU will be available only in accelerators Radeon Instinct for data centers, servers, AI systems and so on. What do you do for gamers?
According to the source, in the best case at the end of next year, and then in early 2020, will the GPU Navi 10. It will be seminomatous graphics processor, but it will be aimed at the middle segment. In fact, it will replace Polaris 10. Yes, cards will of course be much more powerful, it will still be 2019/2020 year and your competitor will be more powerful. In General, the Navi of 10 based mainstream graphics card. You can call them Radeon RX 680 for a better understanding, although not the fact that the name will be exactly this. Next will be Navi 14, which do not have any data, but I guess it will be a budget GPU for cards worth $ 100-150. But Navi top 20, which will be the basis for expensive graphics cards that will be released in 2021! In 2021, Carl! Vega 10 was released in 2017, and that was very late, but he’s no substitute for about four years. It’s too long. Nvidia already obviously will release a line of GTX 1200 or whatever it will be called.
Why is it so? The fact that AMD is far from being the richest company. Compared to Nvidia and Intel and it survives and thrives, although it is, as you can see, she manages to compete with both. Worse than that, with profitability from AMD until recently it was all bad. Simply put, the company has long been unprofitable. Against this background, AMD needed to cut costs, change strategy. And, according to the source, once previously CEO Lisa su have decided to concentrate the main efforts on the processors. As you can see, it was quite successful and we received a gorgeous Ryzen CPU, and Intel got a gorgeous kick, forcing her to move.
As for the graphics unit Radeon Technologies Group (RTG), Lisa su has concentrated two-thirds of its specialists in the super-large decisions and partly on professional products. Polusekretnye decisions are those decisions which are created from available technologies for a specific customer. Basically it is a hybrid processors for consoles Sony and Microsoft. If you don’t know, PS4/PS4 and Xbox Pro One/One X based on the APU AMD with very similar characteristics.
Why this segment? Because he, despite the low margin, the most stable and predictable for the long term. Neither Sony nor Microsoft will not change the platform in the middle of a consoles generation, so that the corresponding contract concludes from AMD for many years. This allows to obtain a constant predictable revenue. In addition, sales volumes are great enough, and the risks are minimal.
Professional solutions are beneficial for the reason that technically from a game, they are no different. But remember the difference in price between gaming cards and professional or even more specialized. The latter can be much more expensive (10 times, if that), and the cost of production is the same. That is a huge margin, albeit the volumes are small.
But gaming solutions is the most disadvantageous to AMD business. There is unpredictable demand, not the highest margin, the need to constantly develop new products, and so on. And that was the area Lisa su was decided to sacrifice, as in Radeon Technologies Group for the entire consumer product line was allocated only one third of employees, which is very little. Presumably, from-for arisen on this basis of conflict and left the head RTG Raja Koduri, switched to Intel.
We understand that the roadmap is irrelevant
Interestingly that even though the cards already, Vega is not designed for us, and especially for Apple, who took them to their desktop. And here we come to the Navi. For AMD with the development of the Navi there is only one reference — the next-generation consoles, which should be out in 2020. Source why talking only about Sony, but the new Xbox, I think will also remain on the APU AMD. AMD simply is not strictly necessary (and extra resources) in order to accelerate release of the Navi. For this reason, the first GPU of a new generation will be released in 2019 or even 2020. Well, for the development of more complex Navi 20 simply need more time.
Unfortunately for us, all very like the truth. Of course, I’m very happy for AMD that it has released a very good CPU and that its solutions are used and will be used in gaming consoles. I just to the company increased revenues and profits to come in the future for it is not a question of gamers or large customers. But still sad that a few years we will see new AMD GPUs.
It is bad because without competition, Nvidia can conditionally put any prices on their products. Also I am not very clear what will happen in a couple of years with card generation Polaris, which obviously remain in the ranks.
By the way, already in the process of writing I came up with the idea that AMD could to the exit Navi maps are still to release a mainstream adapters Vega, who is now there. Yes, they will retain the old manufacturing process, but still will be more powerful cards Polaris. A panacea, this will be the top of the new Nvidia still remain without rivals, but it somehow dilute the market.
Also repeat what I often write. This is a rumor and should be treated accordingly. Yes, the rumours from quite reliable sources, but this does not mean that over time AMD itself does not change its plans.